India’s Population at 1.46 Billion: A Demographic Transition in Progress

India’s population is projected to reach 1.46 billion by 2025, retaining its global lead. UNFPA’s The Real Fertility Crisis highlights India’s declining fertility rate (1.9 births per woman) and demographic shifts, including a significant working-age population (68%) and rising elderly numbers. Progress in education and reproductive healthcare has reduced maternal mortality and empowered women, though inequalities persist. The report calls for reproductive rights and informed choices to address unmet fertility goals, linking demographic changes to economic growth and gender equality for a sustainable future.

India's population is projected to reach a staggering 1.46 billion by 2025, maintaining its position as the most populous nation globally, according to the United Nations Population Fund’s (UNFPA) latest report. The 2025 State of World Population (SOWP) report, titled The Real Fertility Crisis, sheds light on critical shifts in population dynamics while urging a global focus on reproductive empowerment rather than alarm over declining fertility rates.

A Shift in Focus: From Fertility Concerns to Reproductive Agency

The report emphasizes that the true issue lies not in overpopulation or underpopulation but in the unmet reproductive goals of millions worldwide. It highlights the importance of reproductive agency—enabling individuals to make free and informed decisions about contraception, family planning, and their sexual health. This, the report suggests, is the key to addressing the so-called fertility crisis.

Fertility Decline and a Changing Population Structure

India's total fertility rate (TFR) has dropped to 1.9 births per woman, below the replacement level of 2.1 required to sustain population size without immigration. This signifies a notable demographic transition, with Indian women now having fewer children than previous generations. Despite this decline, the nation’s youth population remains significant.

• 24% of the population falls within the 0-14 age group.

  
  

• 17% are aged 10-19, and 26% are between 10-24.

  
  

Additionally, 68% of India’s population is of working age (15-64), presenting a potential demographic dividend. However, leveraging this opportunity will require robust policies and job creation. Meanwhile, the elderly population (65+) currently accounts for 7% and is expected to grow as life expectancy improves. By 2025, life expectancy is projected to reach 71 years for men and 74 years for women.

Historical Context: Fertility and Women’s Rights

The report reflects on how far India has come since 1960 when the country’s population was 436 million, and the average woman had nearly six children. Back then, access to contraception was limited, and fewer than one in four women used any form of birth control. Educational opportunities for women were scarce, with fewer than half attending primary school.

Over the decades, significant progress has been made in improving women’s education, expanding access to reproductive healthcare, and increasing women’s participation in decision-making. Today, the average Indian woman has about two children, a testament to these advancements.

While women in India enjoy greater rights and choices than their mothers and grandmothers, the report underscores that much work remains. Many women still face obstacles in achieving their desired family size or timing pregnancies, highlighting the need for continued efforts in gender equality and reproductive rights.

India's Role in a Global Demographic Shift

India is part of a group of middle-income nations undergoing rapid demographic change. The country's population doubling time is now estimated at 79 years, reflecting a slower growth rate compared to the past. UNFPA India Representative Andrea M Wojnar attributes India's success in lowering fertility rates to improved education and healthcare access.

These changes have had profound impacts, including significant reductions in maternal mortality. Millions of mothers are now able to raise their families and contribute to their communities. However, Wojnar notes that inequalities persist across regions, castes, and income groups, which need to be addressed to fully realize the demographic dividend.

The Path Forward: Linking Rights and Prosperity

India’s demographic story offers a unique opportunity to demonstrate how reproductive rights and economic development can go hand in hand. Empowering individuals, particularly women, with the freedom to make informed reproductive choices will not only enhance their quality of life but also contribute to the nation’s economic growth.

As the report concludes, the real demographic dividend lies in ensuring that every individual has the means to achieve their reproductive goals, paving the way for a more equitable and prosperous future.

India's journey from high fertility rates to a model of demographic transition serves as a global example of how education, healthcare, and empowerment can drive sustainable progress.