China’s Demographic Slide Deepens as Births Hit Historic Lows

• China’s population fell for a fourth year in 2025, down 3.39 million.

• Births hit a record low of 7.92 million; fertility remains far below replacement.

• Deaths rose to their highest rate since 1968, accelerating population decline.

• Pro-birth policies and subsidies have failed to reverse demographic trends.

• Shrinking workforce and rapid ageing threaten long-term economic stability.

  
  
  
  

China’s population continued to shrink in 2025, marking the fourth straight year of decline and underscoring how difficult it has become for authorities to reverse the country’s demographic trajectory. Despite a series of policy shifts and financial incentives designed to encourage families to have more children, the latest figures show that births are falling faster while deaths are steadily rising.

Data released on Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that China’s population dropped by 3.39 million people last year, leaving the total at roughly 1.4 billion. The decrease was larger than in 2024 and extends a downturn that began in 2022. At the core of the trend is a sharp collapse in births alongside an ageing population that is driving mortality higher.

Births sink to record lows

The scale of the decline in births is striking. China recorded 7.92 million newborns in 2025, down from 9.54 million a year earlier. That represents a year-on-year fall of 1.62 million births, or about 17 per cent.

The birth rate slid to 5.63 births per 1,000 people, the lowest level since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949. For the fourth consecutive year, deaths outnumbered births, a sign that the shift is structural rather than a short-term fluctuation.

China’s fertility rate now stands at around one child per woman over her lifetime, far below the replacement level of 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population without immigration.

Rising deaths add to the imbalance

While births have dropped sharply, deaths have continued to climb. In 2025, China recorded 11.31 million deaths, pushing the death rate to 8.04 per 1,000 people — the highest level seen since 1968.

The combined effect of fewer births and more deaths translated into a net population decline of 2.41 per 1,000 people last year. Demographers say this reflects the delayed consequences of decades of low fertility, now colliding with a rapidly ageing society.

A long list of policy responses

Beijing has spent years trying to arrest the population downturn. The one-child policy was formally abandoned in 2016 in favour of a two-child limit, and when that failed to lift birth numbers, the cap was raised to three children per couple in 2021.

More recently, the government announced a nationwide childcare subsidy that takes effect on January 1, 2026. Parents will receive 3,600 yuan (around $500) per year for each child under the age of three. Public kindergarten fees were waived starting last autumn, and several provinces have introduced additional measures, including cash bonuses, subsidised housing and extended maternity leave.

Some of the steps have been more contentious. This year, China imposed a 13 per cent value-added tax on contraceptives such as condoms and birth control pills after scrapping earlier exemptions. Although the change was not officially described as a pro-birth policy, many observers viewed it as an indirect attempt to encourage childbirth.

President Xi Jinping has also called for the creation of a “new culture of marriage and childbearing,” urging officials to influence social attitudes around relationships, family and fertility. In response, some local governments have adopted increasingly intrusive practices, including monitoring menstrual cycles and discouraging abortions that are not deemed medically necessary.

Why young people are still opting out

Despite these efforts, China’s birth rate continues to fall. A 2024 report by the YuWa Population Research Institute found that China ranks among the most expensive countries in the world to raise a child, with high housing prices, education fees and childcare costs acting as powerful deterrents.

Economic pressures have only intensified the reluctance. Youth unemployment among 16- to 24-year-olds reached 18.9 per cent in August, and many young workers face the punishing “996” schedule — 9 a.m. to 9 p.m., six days a week — leaving little time or energy for family life.

Marriage rates are also at historic lows. Many couples born under the one-child policy now confront the dual responsibility of raising children while supporting two sets of ageing parents. Public response to government incentives has therefore been muted, with some young people openly remarking that even higher prices for contraception are still far cheaper than the long-term cost of raising a child.

Economic and social consequences ahead

A contracting population carries profound implications for China’s economy and society. As the working-age population shrinks, labour supply and consumer demand are expected to weaken. Although the economy expanded by 5 per cent in 2025, hitting the official target, economists note that growth was driven largely by exports, masking sluggish domestic consumption.

The ageing challenge is also accelerating. The number of people aged 60 and above is projected to reach 400 million by 2035, putting additional strain on the pension system. The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences has already warned that pension funds are under pressure and risk running short.

United Nations projections suggest China’s population could fall from around 1.4 billion today to roughly 800 million by 2100, with some estimates pointing to a loss of more than half the population by the end of the century.

For now, the latest figures indicate that China’s demographic decline is not only continuing but deepening — and that the range of effective policy options to reverse it is narrowing fast.