INDIA CHINA Connect

India has become the world’s fourth-largest economy with a nominal GDP of about $4.18 trillion, overtaking Japan after surpassing the UK in 2022. Driven by strong domestic demand, favourable demographics, low inflation and robust growth, India is now targeting Germany. Sustained reforms, investment and macroeconomic stability could lift it to third place within a few years.

India’s mall sector is bucking the global retail downturn as Western malls struggle with closures and vacancies. Anarock says strong consumer demand, a young population, low retail supply, and limited e-commerce penetration are driving growth. With near-full occupancy and lifestyle-led formats, Indian malls could attract $3.5 billion in investment over three years.

NRI deposits rose to $168.1 billion in October 2025, up from $162.6 billion a year earlier, driven by a 7.9% rise in dollar deposits to $34.39 billion. Rupee deposits remained stable at $100 billion, indicating a shift toward foreign currency holdings as NRIs sought higher returns and hedged against currency volatility amid global rate differentials.

Japan’s largest banks are increasingly targeting India’s fast-growing financial sector to offset limited growth at home. Led by MUFG’s proposed Rs 40,000 crore investment in Shriram Finance, Japanese lenders are expanding through stakes in banks and NBFCs. Strong credit demand, rising incomes and global investor interest make India a strategic long-term growth market.

India and New Zealand have concluded a landmark free trade agreement after nine months of talks, offering zero-duty access for all Indian exports and easing tariffs on 95% of New Zealand’s exports. The pact expands services access, enables skilled worker mobility, commits $20 billion in New Zealand investment, and aims to double bilateral trade within five years.

India’s strong GDP growth alongside a weakening rupee reflects a structural shift rather than a contradiction.

India is projected to enter a powerful 17‑year growth phase, with GDP potentially reaching $16 trillion by 2042.

Domestic investors have absorbed record foreign selling in 2025, keeping Indian markets stable despite over Rs 2.23 lakh crore in FPI outflows.

Adani Group plans to invest up to ₹12 trillion in India over six years, focusing on infrastructure, mining, and major renewable energy projects, including a massive 30 GW park in Gujarat.

Amazon will invest $35 billion in India by 2030 to expand AI capabilities, boost exports, and create jobs, building on over $40 billion already invested.

Microsoft will invest $17.5 billion in India to expand AI and cloud infrastructure, its largest Asian commitment.

The IMF forecasts China will grow 5 percent in 2025 and 4.5 percent in 2026, citing stimulus and resilience despite trade tensions.

India must import key components to scale electronics exports, industry leaders said at a Lucknow summit.

India’s economy grew 8.2 percent in Q2 FY26, driven by strong manufacturing and services. Consumption and investment stayed firm despite lower government spending, while imports outpaced exports.

India’s July–September 2025 GDP grew 8.2%, with low inflation and financial stability despite global turmoil. Sanjeev Sanyal credits a decade of reforms—from GST, IBC and inflation‑targeting to sector openings and infrastructure push—for boosting productivity.

India’s exports to China rose 24.7% to $10.03 billion between April and October, driven by petroleum, telecom, and marine goods, even as overall exports stagnated.

India’s record rice surplus is straining storage and prompting a push for new export opportunities.

India’s new Labour Codes replace 29 older laws with a unified system that boosts worker protection, expands social security, and modernises rules for a digital economy.

India’s retail market is projected to hit $1 trillion by 2030, powered by higher incomes, digital adoption, and evolving consumer aspirations.

Airbus projects Asia-Pacific will need 19,560 new aircraft in 20 years, nearly half of global demand, with India and China driving growth.