INDIA CHINA Connect

UltraTech has surpassed 200 MTPA domestic capacity, making it the largest cement producer outside China. With new units in Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, and Andhra Pradesh, global capacity stands at 205.5 MTPA. It doubled capacity in under seven years, powering India’s housing, highways, metros, and landmark projects. A ₹16,000+ crore capex aims to exceed 240 MTPA while advancing sustainability goals.

India’s electronics manufacturing surge is reshaping trade. Apple suppliers exported $2.5B in components to China in FY26, with exports projected at $3.5B versus $920M in FY25. PLI and ECMS programs boosted competitiveness, reversing trade flows. India now supplies China and could capture 30–35% of global mobile production, marking a pivotal shift in global supply chains.

India’s digital ad market could reach USD 19–22 billion by 2030, expanding at 10–15% CAGR. Globally, digital ads will surpass USD 1.2 trillion, forming 70–75% of ad spend by 2025. The US (46%) and China (24%) dominate, while India holds ~1%. Mobile, especially in-app ads, drives growth. AI, privacy, and first-party data will shape future leaders.

India’s 2026–27 growth forecast has been raised to 6.6% by the World Bank, highlighting resilience amid global volatility. Strong domestic demand supports India, while South Asia’s growth slows to 6.3% due to geopolitical and energy shocks. Risks include oil prices, inflation, tighter monetary policy, weaker remittances, and climate disruptions, with uneven outlooks across neighboring economies.

March 2026 e-way bills surged to a record 140.6 million, up 12.9% year-on-year, signaling strong commercial activity and improved GST compliance. Driven by year-end dispatches, inventory adjustments, and resilient demand, the rise may also reflect precautionary stockpiling amid global uncertainties. Increased goods movement could raise logistics costs, while digital GST reforms accelerate formalisation and tax transparency.

India’s exports hit a record USD 860 billion in FY 2025–26, rising from USD 825 billion despite global uncertainties. Nine trade agreements expanded market access, while reforms boosted investor confidence. Services, engineering, and electronics drove growth momentum. With resilience and integration strengthening, exports are projected to surpass USD 1 trillion in FY 2026–27, marking a milestone in India’s global trade trajectory.

China became India’s top trading partner in 2025–26 with trade worth $151.1 billion, though the deficit widened to a record $112.16 billion. Exports to China rose 36.66%, but imports stayed higher. The US slipped to second, with India’s surplus narrowing to $34.4 billion. Export and import trends showed mixed performance across major global partners.

India’s defense exports crossed $4B in FY 2025–26, rising over 60% year-on-year. Public and private sectors jointly drive growth, with PSUs contributing ~55%. Equipment reaches 100+ countries, including the US, France, Israel, and Germany. Armenia and the Philippines lead in indigenous purchases. Aligned with “Make in India,” exports expand India’s global footprint while reducing import dependence.

India’s remittances, now $138B annually, exceed FDI and nearly doubled in a decade. Advanced economies drive a rising share, boosting resilience. Funds cover almost half the trade deficit and support households, especially in Kerala. Transfers are expected to remain stable or grow. The diaspora also fuels startups, philanthropy, and global healthcare leadership, strengthening India’s economic position.

India’s bioeconomy expanded from $10B in 2014 to $195B in 2026, projected near $300B by 2033. A global $300B patent cliff and rising $2.2B R&D costs create opportunity. Faster recruitment and lower costs enable 3–4x more development per dollar. Strong policy push and 2,500+ startups drive growth, with rising global validation.

EV sales in India crossed 2.45 million units in FY26, up 25% year-on-year. Two-wheelers led with 1.4 million units, while three-wheelers rose 19% to 830,000. Passenger EVs surged 84% to nearly 200,000, and commercial EVs jumped 121% with fleet electrification. Tata, JSW MG, and Mahindra dominated car sales. Expanding charging networks and new launches strengthened long-term growth momentum.

India’s luxury market is expanding with rising wealth and 6%+ growth, yet limited retail space hinders global brand entry. Only three true luxury malls exist, despite over a dozen brands ready to launch. India ranks fourth in ultra-wealthy individuals, but the $12.1 billion market faces challenges from high import duties and infrastructure gaps slowing momentum.

India’s exports to the US fell 12.88% in February amid tariff changes, with a temporary 10% duty replacing steep earlier levies. Imports from the US surged, adding trade pressures. Meanwhile, India’s deficit with China crossed $102 billion, as strong exports contrast with heavy reliance on imports. Overall, the merchandise trade deficit widened year-on-year.

Apple boosted iPhone production in India by 53% to 55 million units in 2025, now accounting for about 25% of its global output. The shift diversifies supply chains beyond China amid U.S. tariffs. Despite higher costs, government incentives drive growth. India assembles iPhone 17 and older models, generating $9 billion revenue, with retail and Apple Pay expansion planned.

India’s Union Cabinet eased FDI rules for neighbors by amending Press Note 3 of 2020, relaxing prior approval requirements. The policy covers China, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Bhutan, Nepal, Myanmar, and Afghanistan. Despite this, China’s FDI share remains low at 0.32% ($2.51 billion). Meanwhile, India’s trade deficit with China widened to $99.2 billion in 2024–25, highlighting ongoing economic imbalances.

India’s chip market is set to double from $52B in 2024 to $103B by 2030, fueled by AI, electric mobility, and defence. Data centres will expand from 1.5 GW to 9 GW. IndiaAI Mission exceeded GPU targets, yet 90% of equipment is imported. With $50M invested in startups, design and fabless models offer immediate opportunities.

Under the PLI scheme (2021–2026), Apple and its partners created over 250,000 direct jobs, with 70% being young women entering the workforce. Tata and Foxconn exceeded targets with 140,000 jobs. Wages rose nearly 80% to Rs 18,000–20,000 monthly. The Apple ecosystem added 750,000 indirect jobs and achieved $23 billion in iPhone exports in 2025.

India’s e-commerce market is projected to rise from $140 billion to nearly $300 billion by 2030, with total consumption hitting $3.7 trillion. Growth will be driven by smaller cities, rural buyers, women, and middle-income groups. MSMEs, quick commerce, and social platforms fuel expansion, while increasing consumer complaints underscore the need for stronger trust and protection measures.

India anticipates over $200 billion in AI investments within two years across the full technology stack, spanning infrastructure, compute, applications, and energy. With 51% clean energy capacity, it promotes sustainable AI growth. Emphasizing responsible, accountable AI and global consensus, India advances reskilling and future-ready education, while AI Mission 2.0 expands research, shared compute, and adds 20,000+ GPUs.

Urban areas are projected to generate 70% of India’s GDP in 2025–26, up from 45% in the 1990s, with the urban population set to reach 600 million by 2036. Urban local bodies have grown 8.56% since 2016. Tier-II and Tier-III cities are rising as investment hubs, backed by ₹5,000 crore allocations, led by Ahmedabad and Pune.