China and India Powering Global Economic Growth in 2026

• Global real GDP growth is forecast at 3.1% in 2026, with emerging markets driving most of the momentum.

• China (26.6%) and India (17%) together account for over 43% of global growth.

• Advanced economies’ influence is shrinking; the U.S. and EU contribute ~16% combined.

• Asia-Pacific leads regionally with nearly 60% of global growth, reflecting a shift in economic power.

Global economic expansion is projected to remain on solid footing in 2026, even as growth in many advanced economies cools. According to International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts, worldwide real GDP is expected to rise by about 3.1% next year, with emerging markets accounting for an increasingly large share of that momentum.

A closer look at the data shows how individual countries and regions are expected to contribute to overall global growth, highlighting a continued shift in economic influence away from traditional power centers and toward developing economies.

China and India at the Core of Global Expansion

China is once again set to be the single largest contributor to global economic growth in 2026, responsible for an estimated 26.6% of the increase in real GDP worldwide. While China’s annual growth rates are lower than in earlier decades, the scale of its economy means it continues to exert outsized influence on global outcomes.

India ranks second, projected to deliver roughly 17% of global growth. Taken together, China and India are expected to account for more than 43% of worldwide economic expansion next year, underscoring Asia’s central role in shaping the global outlook.

Advanced Economies Play a Smaller Role

Among developed nations, the United States remains the largest individual contributor, with an estimated 9.9% share of global growth in 2026. Europe as a whole is close behind, contributing about 9.5%, spread across major economies such as Germany, France, Italy, and Spain.

However, structural challenges continue to limit Europe’s growth potential. Slowing population increases, aging societies, and tighter financial conditions are weighing on economic performance across the region. Combined, the U.S. and the European Union are expected to generate only around 16% of total global growth, a notable contrast to their historical dominance.

Regional Shifts Redefine the Global Economy

Viewed by region, the Asia-Pacific area stands out as the primary engine of global growth, accounting for approximately 59.4% of the total. Beyond China and India, countries such as Indonesia and Vietnam are also making meaningful contributions.

North America is projected to deliver about 11.4% of global growth, followed by Europe. Africa, home to many of the world’s fastest-growing economies, is expected to contribute 7.7%, led by countries including Nigeria, Egypt, and Ethiopia.

Overall, the IMF’s outlook for 2026 points to a world economy increasingly driven by nations at earlier stages of development. Population growth, expanding labor forces, rising consumer demand, and higher levels of public spending are set to underpin this shift, reinforcing the long-term rebalancing of global economic power.