India’s China-Bound Exports Surge 33% as Trade Dynamics Undergo a Shift

• India’s exports to China rose 33% to $12.22 billion in April–November, the highest level in four years.

• Growth comes amid high US tariffs, pushing Indian exporters to diversify markets.

• Export gains span electronics, agriculture, marine products and base metals, signalling a structural shift.

• India is considering easing 2020 curbs on Chinese firms, potentially boosting bilateral trade further.

India’s trade relationship with China appears to be entering a new phase, with the neighbouring country steadily gaining importance as an export destination for Indian goods. Official data from the commerce ministry shows that shipments to China rose sharply by 33 per cent to $12.22 billion during April–November of the current financial year, marking a notable recovery after recent fluctuations.

This upswing is particularly significant at a time when New Delhi is grappling with steep tariffs imposed by the United States, India’s largest export market. The latest figures suggest that Indian exporters may be recalibrating their strategies, pointing to a possible long-term adjustment in bilateral trade patterns between India and China.

After slipping last year, exports to China have rebounded strongly, reaching their highest level in four years. During April–November 2024–25, India’s exports to China stood at $9.2 billion. By comparison, shipments were valued at $9.89 billion in the same period of 2022–23 and $10.28 billion in 2023–24. The jump to $12.22 billion in 2025–26 represents a clear turnaround, according to the data.

A diverse mix of products has powered this growth. Shipments of oil meals, marine products, telecom equipment and spices all posted gains. The electronics segment, in particular, recorded an exceptional rise: exports of populated printed circuit boards climbed from just 922.4 million in the first eight months of the fiscal year. Other electronic items, such as flat panel display modules and electrical components used in telephony, also saw increased demand.

Agricultural and marine exports were led by dried red chilies, black tiger shrimp, green gram, Vannamei shrimp and oil-cake residues. In addition, exports of aluminium and refined copper billets made a meaningful contribution to the overall rise in shipments.

Officials say the breadth of products involved is a key indicator of change. The spread across electronics, farm goods and base metals suggests that the surge is not limited to a single sector, but instead reflects a wider and more structural expansion of India’s export basket to China.

Exporters on the ground echo this view. According to industry representatives, Indian companies are actively seeking alternative markets as elevated US tariffs have eroded their price competitiveness in America, prompting them to look eastward for new opportunities.

Possible Easing of Curbs on Chinese Firms

Against this backdrop, the Indian government is also reviewing its stance on Chinese companies operating in the domestic market. Sources told Reuters that the finance ministry is considering rolling back restrictions introduced in 2020 that prevented Chinese firms from bidding for government contracts. Those measures, imposed after a deadly border clash, required Chinese companies to undergo a special registration process and obtain political and security clearances.

The curbs effectively shut Chinese firms out of government procurement opportunities estimated at $700–750 billion. Officials are now reportedly working on removing the registration requirement, with the final call expected from Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s office.

Impact of Earlier Restrictions

The earlier restrictions had real-world consequences. China’s state-owned CRRC was barred from participating in a $216 million train manufacturing tender, while several government departments flagged delays and supply constraints due to the limited pool of eligible bidders. A high-level panel chaired by former cabinet secretary Rajiv Gauba later recommended easing the curbs.

Data from the Observer Research Foundation showed that new projects awarded to Chinese bidders dropped by 27 per cent in 2021 compared with the previous year. More recently, news of a possible policy shift weighed on investor sentiment, with shares of companies such as Bharat Heavy Electricals and Larsen & Toubro declining amid concerns of stiffer competition.

Trade Ties Improve Amid Global Pressures

Commercial engagement between India and China has shown signs of improvement in recent months. Prime Minister Modi visited China last year—the first such trip in seven years—where both sides agreed to work towards deeper economic cooperation. Following the visit, direct flights between the two countries resumed, and visa clearances for Chinese professionals were fast-tracked.

Analysts note that these steps come as India seeks to diversify its trade relationships in response to global uncertainties and higher US tariffs on Indian goods. While New Delhi continues to exercise caution on foreign investment, easing restrictions on Chinese firms could further bolster bilateral trade at a time when both economies are navigating shifting global trade pressures.