INDIA CHINA Connect

The long‑negotiated India–EU free trade agreement, launched in 2007, is nearing conclusion at the January 27 summit. Covering markets of almost two billion people, the deal seeks to expand trade and investment, strengthen supply‑chain resilience, and deliver gains in market access, exports, services growth, and strategic economic diversification amid global disruptions.

The IMF has raised India’s 2025 growth forecast to 7.3%, driven by stronger corporate earnings and economic momentum. Growth is expected to ease to 6.4% in 2026–27 but remain above global averages. India is set to outperform major economies and lead emerging Asia, as global growth holds at 3.3% amid AI investment, despite risks from valuations, trade tensions, and geopolitics.

Temu’s cross‑border market share jumped from under 1% in 2022 to 24%, equaling Amazon worldwide. Amazon’s share has slipped as Chinese platforms expand. Shein remained stable, while AliExpress and eBay declined. Temu’s rise reflects low‑cost Chinese sourcing, heavy marketing, and fast global rollout, though upcoming US and EU regulations could alter competition.

Advanced mobility and clean‑energy technologies in China are shifting from pilots to everyday use. Heavy state investment is speeding adoption of EVs, battery swapping, autonomous vehicles, drones, and high‑speed rail. Automation is transforming logistics and urban transit efficiency. China’s scale, pace, and risk tolerance drive global leadership, despite debt pressures, regulatory constraints, and uneven outcomes.

India and the UAE aim to reach $200 billion in bilateral trade by 2032 under CEPA, underscoring closer economic ties. A long‑term LNG agreement strengthens India’s energy security. Cooperation in defence, space, and supercomputing signals high‑tech alignment, while investments in Dholera SIR and GIFT City deepen industrial and financial integration, complemented by strong cultural and people‑to‑people links.

India is projected to reach the World Bank’s upper‑middle‑income category by 2030, with per capita GNI nearing $4,000. Economic growth has accelerated, pushing GDP toward $5 trillion, while per capita income has doubled since 2009. India’s global growth ranking has improved markedly, and sustained momentum underpins its long‑term ambition of becoming a high‑income economy.

Startup India marks a decade with startups raising $151 billion and producing 118 unicorns. More than 25,000 funding rounds since 2016 have made India a major global startup hub. Registered startups grew from 500 to over 200,000, supported by policy reforms. After funding peaked in 2021–22 and slowed post‑2022, attention is shifting to sustainable, execution‑focused, deep‑tech‑driven growth.

China’s population declined for a fourth consecutive year in 2025, falling by 3.39 million. Births dropped to a record low of 7.92 million as fertility stayed far below replacement, while deaths rose to their highest rate since 1968. Pro‑birth incentives have failed, and a shrinking workforce with rapid ageing poses serious long‑term economic risks.

Amrut Expedition 15‑Year‑Old ranked third worldwide in Jim Murray’s Whisky Bible 2025–26, becoming only the second Indian whisky, after Amrut Fusion, to earn elite global recognition. The achievement validates decades of craftsmanship and innovation, proves successful long‑term ageing in India’s warm climate, and underscores India’s growing influence and credibility in the global single‑malt whisky market.