Impact of the Ukraine Conflict on China & Asia – Readers Comments and Regional Updates
Last week, we published a highly regarded report about Russia’s Pivot to Asia which contained valuable intelligence concerning the impact on Asian markets in China, Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Central Asia, the Eurasian Economic Union, India, Pakistan, ASEAN, Japan, and South Korea and illustrate how Ukraine is a component part of a far wider geopolitical struggle between the East and West. We also examined what is in store for global markets and economies, the impact on the US dollar, and China / Asian supply chains after the 21st century’s first major conflict. That report can be downloaded here on a pay-what-you-want basis, with proceeds going to Ukrainian children’s charities.
Interest from readers has been intense, with several new geopolitical and trade points coming out from comments made about the report. To bring readers up to date with the latest implications, we reproduce some of these as follows. Thank you to our readers for contributing to the subject.
Impact on Asia
“India is key. With deteriorating relations with the United States, which has now threatened New Delhi with sanctions for maintaining trade with Russia, will it continue to be part of the Quad, or will it shift to a Russia-Pakistan-China-Iran-NK axis?
How far can Saudi Arabia be prised away from US ties? We could be witnessing the complete establishment of a new regional security bloc based around the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.”
“Turkey and Germany – Turkey needs Russian energy. Will Russia eventually be able to split Turkey and possibly Germany away from continued NATO and EU involvement? Germany certainly appears reluctant to enforce additional sanctions and is facing intense political pressure at home with a new Chancellor, and rising food and fuel prices. Corporate Germany may resist.”
“About the Armenia-Azerbaijan rapprochement. Is Russia pulling troops from their places of theater, including the Caucasus, to help with the Ukraine situation? If so, will that lead to more flareups in the Caucasus down the road?”
“I think the key point in your report is the paragraph:
“It should be noted however that there may be a limit to China’s patience concerning the Ukraine conflict, which is disabling part of its own supply chains and interfering with the preferred Chinese modus operandi of ‘sustainable development.’ To illustrate growing discontent, Sinopec canceled this week (March 25) a proposed US$500 million investment with Russia’s Sibur, its largest petrochemical producer for a 40% stake in a facility in East Siberia. Putin will have noticed.”
This means that Putin is aware of Chinese discontent over the war. But that doesn’t necessarily mean that China is discontented with Russia’s position with the United States, meaning that the Ukraine issue and the geopolitical struggle are two different things. How China tilts determines Russia’s future. Everything else is secondary.”
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