China’s Expanding Trade Surplus tops record US$1 trillion Signals Resilient Export Momentum

China’s trade surplus hit US$1.076 trillion in 11 months, driven by a November export rebound and diversified markets despite weak US demand. Imports grew modestly, reflecting soft domestic consumption. Economists say the strong surplus supports 2025 growth as policymakers plan more fiscal stimulus. Rare earth and trade tensions eased, while exports to the EU, Asia and Africa strengthened. 

China has set a new benchmark in global trade, recording an unprecedented surplus of US$1.076 trillion in the first 11 months of the year. The figure eclipses last year’s full-year record and underscores Beijing’s success in widening its export reach and reconfiguring supply chains during a period marked by tariff tensions with Washington.

Between January and November, China’s surplus exceeded the previous annual high of US$992.2 billion logged in 2024. By contrast, the first 10 months of this year had generated US$964.8 billion in surplus, showing strong momentum heading into the final stretch of 2025.

Export performance strengthened sharply in November, reversing October’s contraction and reflecting improved market sentiment after renewed trade dialogue with the United States. Despite this rebound, shipments to the US remained under heavy pressure.

According to customs figures released Monday, outbound goods grew 5.9 per cent year on year in November, totalling US$330.35 billion. This surpassed market expectations and marked a clear recovery from the previous month’s decline. Imports also rose—up 1.9 per cent to US$218.67 billion—though the pace remained more subdued than analysts had expected. China ended the month with a trade surplus of US$111.68 billion.

Economists noted that strengthening exports would help reinforce overall economic growth, while the slower pick-up in imports continued to highlight soft domestic consumption.

Lynn Song, ING’s chief economist for Greater China, attributed the expanding surplus—up more than 22 per cent from a year earlier—to resilient external demand and China’s diversified trading footprint. Song said the sustained surplus would provide a significant lift heading into 2025.

Zhang Zhiwei of Pinpoint Asset Management added that November’s export recovery is helping to counter weaker spending at home, keeping China on pace to meet its roughly 5 per cent annual growth target. He expects fiscal stimulus to rise early next year, particularly in infrastructure investment, following key upcoming policy meetings.

China’s Politburo signalled on Monday that it would maintain an active fiscal approach and a moderately accommodative monetary stance in the year ahead. These directives typically shape agenda-setting discussions at the annual central economic work conference.

However, Song cautioned that slow import growth could heighten concerns among major partners like the European Union, emphasizing that China’s shift toward more consumption-driven growth remains a long-term transition.

Exports to the United States continued their sharp slide in November, falling 28.6 per cent year on year—an even deeper contraction than in October. Song suggested that tariff reductions agreed upon in late October had not yet fully impacted November’s data.

Trade frictions escalated earlier this year, with multiple waves of tariffs and sanctions, but the two governments have since struck a partial agreement that reduced duties and postponed export controls. A late-November call between President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump further eased tensions, with Trump announcing plans to visit China next April.

Pressure surrounding critical minerals also subsided. China refrained from imposing additional export restrictions on rare earths, and November shipments surged 26.5 per cent from the previous month to 5,493.9 tonnes.

Customs is expected to release more detailed export breakdowns on December 20.

China’s soybean imports fell 14.5 per cent in November to 8.1 million tonnes. While China has leaned heavily on Brazil for supply in recent years, authorities temporarily halted imports from five Brazilian exporters after detecting pesticide-treated wheat in a Beijing-bound shipment. The White House claimed Beijing agreed to major soybean purchases stretching through 2028, though Chinese officials have not publicly confirmed the commitments.

Technology trade saw mixed results. Chip exports dipped 1 per cent month on month, following a sharper fall in October, while chip imports dropped nearly 7 per cent. These figures come on the heels of the Nexperia dispute, which saw Dutch regulators temporarily take control of the company’s Netherlands headquarters. Tensions eased after Beijing signaled exemptions for compliant civilian-use chip exports, and Dutch authorities suspended their enforcement action following negotiations.

Beyond the US, China’s exports performed strongly across several major partners: shipments to the EU climbed 14.8 per cent, while Japan, South Korea and African markets posted gains of 4.3 per cent, 1.9 per cent and 27.6 per cent, respectively.

As China heads into 2026 planning discussions, the latest data suggests that while domestic demand still requires support, the country’s export engine continues to power ahead—even amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.