On the Fast Track: Chinese Rail Firms Turn to Eurasia for Their Next Growth Chapter

• China’s maturing domestic rail market is pushing major firms to seek growth across Eurasia.

• Southeast Asia and Central Asia are prime targets for new high-speed rail investments.

• Flagship projects in Indonesia and Europe showcase China’s export capabilities.

• Thailand and Malaysia are advancing major rail upgrades with Chinese involvement.

• High costs demand strong finances, political stability, and guaranteed ridership.

• Rail exports bolster China’s global influence and diplomatic presence.

As China’s vast high-speed rail network nears saturation at home, the country’s major railway builders are increasingly looking beyond their borders for fresh opportunities. Industry observers say the next phase of expansion is likely to unfold across Eurasia, where infrastructure demand remains strong and several governments are weighing the benefits of large-scale transport upgrades.

China’s domestic high-speed rail system is already the largest in the world, with services reaching 97 percent of cities with populations above 500,000, according to official figures released in December. With most major urban markets connected, engineering giants are finding fewer untapped projects within China’s borders—particularly in densely developed metropolitan areas. As a result, overseas ventures are becoming a strategic priority.

Recent flagship projects have helped set the stage for this outward push. The 142-kilometre Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway in Indonesia, financed and built with Chinese participation, has been operating for more than two years and had transported 12 million passengers as of October. Meanwhile, construction continues on the 350-kilometre Budapest-Belgrade railway in Europe. These initiatives offer proof of concept for countries considering similar collaborations.

Analysts suggest Southeast Asia is poised to become a focal point. Nations such as Laos, Malaysia, and Thailand are seen as particularly receptive to high-speed rail development, while Central Asia could also emerge as a strong candidate, especially where Chinese-backed trade infrastructure already exists. Many of these countries are pursuing rail upgrades to ease traffic congestion, modernize aging lines, or improve cross-border connectivity.

Thailand is among the most prominent examples. Chinese contractors are currently developing a 610-kilometre line linking Bangkok to Nong Khai, designed for both passengers and freight at speeds of up to 250 km/h. When the project is expected to be completed in 2030, it will allow onward connections to China via Laos’ existing railway. Supporters argue the line could reshape mobility in Thailand’s populous northeast, where infrastructure has lagged behind demand for decades.

Malaysia, too, is advancing a 665-kilometre east-west railway constructed by China Communications Construction. As of late last year, the project was reported to be nearing completion, with operations slated to begin in 2027 at speeds of up to 160 km/h. Chinese rolling stock manufacturer CRRC Dalian is said to be supplying some of the trains. Additionally, a long-discussed Kuala Lumpur–Singapore high-speed rail link remains under consideration, with potential Chinese investment still on the table.

In Indonesia, authorities are exploring further partnerships following the launch of the Jakarta-Bandung line. Jakarta’s provincial government is seeking private capital for metro development projects valued at nearly US$6 billion, structured through public-private partnerships. The move reflects a broader trend: host nations are increasingly open to foreign financing models to bring costly infrastructure plans to fruition.

The price tag for such undertakings remains formidable. Estimates from 2023 placed construction costs for high-speed rail in China starting at around US$17 million per kilometre, with overseas projects potentially running even higher. Analysts caution that financial sustainability is crucial. Governments must ensure solid fiscal footing, public backing, and realistic ridership projections before committing to these ventures.

Financing arrangements often involve Chinese-backed loans or investment packages, with host countries expecting ticket revenue to eventually offset costs. However, experts warn that even strong political will cannot compensate for weak demand. Without sufficient passenger numbers, repayment and operational viability become uncertain.

Not every region is well suited to high-speed rail. In some markets, conventional rail may be more appropriate for typical travel distances and income levels. African nations, for instance, face steep fiscal pressures. Kenya, which spends about US$1 billion annually servicing Chinese debt, has grappled with concerns over repayment obligations tied to infrastructure projects.

Political dynamics also shape outcomes. Shifts in leadership or public opinion can accelerate—or derail—rail initiatives linked to Beijing. Countries with strained relations with China, including India and the Philippines, are considered unlikely to prioritize Chinese firms for future high-speed projects.

Still, high-speed rail carries symbolic weight beyond its economic calculus. For Beijing, exporting this technology serves as a showcase of its industrial capabilities and a visible marker of its global ascent. When structured carefully and supported by strong fundamentals, such projects can deliver both transportation benefits and diplomatic goodwill.

As China’s rail champions scan the Eurasian landscape for their next ventures, the balance between ambition and practicality will determine how far—and how fast—their global journey continues.