INDIA CHINA Connect

Indian immigrants have played a key role in the U.S. startup ecosystem, founding or co-founding 96 unicorns—the highest number from any country. Immigrants are responsible for 59% of America's billion-dollar startups, with a collective valuation of $5 trillion. Many Indian entrepreneurs began as international students and frequently appear as repeat billion-dollar founders.

The US accounts for about 70% of global demand for lab-grown jewellery. China produces approximately 22 million carats of gem-quality stones yearly, while India polishes over 90% of the world's rough supply. Wholesale prices have plummeted up to 90% due to overcapacity. Future growth is expected in semiconductor and quantum-grade diamond wafers.

At least 15 Chinese aerospace firms are gearing up for IPOs in Shanghai and Hong Kong. LandSpace seeks $1.1 billion for reusable rocket development. China recently recovered the Long March-10B booster at sea, but still faces higher costs than U.S. competitors. Beijing aspires to compete with SpaceX in the global commercial launch market.

India's Finance Minister urges banks to enhance NRI engagement and introduce innovative deposit products. RBI's swap schemes focus on bolstering forex reserves and stabilizing the rupee, potentially raising up to $70 billion through FCNR(B), ECB, and OFCB channels. With forex reserves at $682 billion, significant NRI interest is noted in major global financial hubs.

In 2025, India saw 31,033 new dollar millionaires, surpassing China, with nearly 944,000 total millionaires. Indian wealth remains property-focused; only 25.8% is in financial assets compared to 78.9% in the US. Household gold holdings are about 25,000 tonnes. Wealth inequality is significant, with a Gini coefficient of 0.74.

Ambassador Vikram Doraiswami engaged with Chinese firms to strengthen commercial relationships. In FY26, China emerged as India's top trading partner, with trade reaching $151.1 billion. Indian exports to China increased by 36.66% to $19.47 billion, though the trade deficit expanded to $112.16 billion. India aims to improve access for its pharmaceutical, IT, and agricultural exports.

India and the US have finalized a framework for a trade pact, aiming for New Delhi to gain tariff advantages over competitors. Section 301 probes could lead to a proposed 12.5% tariff on India. A temporary 10% US tariff exists after a 25% levy was struck down. Both nations emphasize commitment to a balanced, commercially meaningful deal.

Gold has overtaken US Treasuries in global reserve rankings. India reduced its US Treasury holdings by 22.5% to $181 billion, while RBI gold reserves increased to 881 tonnes, with 77% held domestically. Central banks are purchasing an average of 1,000 tonnes of gold annually. Although the dollar remains dominant, a gradual diversification is occurring.

Makers are gearing up for a significant China campaign for the Diwali 2026 release, possibly featuring Ranbir Kapoor, Yash, and Sai Pallavi on a four-day tour. Promotions may include a screening at the Pingyao Film Festival on September 24, with a broader outreach during Golden Week starting October 1, aiming to revitalize Bollywood's presence in China.

Chinese Consul General Xu Wei advocates for stronger India-China economic ties. Kolkata revives the Dragon Boat Festival after six years, emphasizing unity between Chinese and Indian communities. Rooted in ancient Chinese traditions, the festival serves as a cultural exchange platform, laying the groundwork for deeper commercial engagement between the two nations.

India and China drive 60–70% of global gold demand through cultural practices, not crises. In FY26, India imported 721 tonnes valued at $71.98 billion, while China's imports rose 76% year-on-year to 692 tonnes by May 2026. Together, they account for about 40% of the world's gold consumption, creating a stable price floor due to cultural demand.

Bilateral trade between China and India reached $91.72 billion in the first half of 2026, a 23.6% increase. China's exports to India grew by 21.8% to $79.41 billion, while India's exports to China surged 37.2% to $12.31 billion. The trade deficit expanded to $67.1 billion, prompting India to seek enhanced market access and investment from China.

India's small firms face high compliance costs, hindering exports. With 64 million MSMEs, few export directly due to complex regulations. India trails China and Vietnam in business ease, with 14% of firms citing permits as a major constraint. NITI advocates for simpler regulations, digital portals, and improved export finance to boost competitiveness and facilitate easier market entry.

The IMF forecasts India's GDP growth at 6.4% for FY27 and 6.7% for FY28, marking a slight revision from April's outlook. Despite global growth slowing to 3.0% in 2026, India remains a leading performer, driven by domestic consumption and services. The RBI estimates FY27 growth at 6.6%, highlighting geopolitical and energy risks.

All five Indian participants secured gold at the 56th International Physics Olympiad 2026, sharing first place with Russia, China, Kazakhstan, South Korea, and Taiwan. The competition hosted 381 students from 87 countries. After months of rigorous theory and lab training, this achievement enhances India's global standing in science.