India could well be on its way to becoming the world’s third largest economy and stock market if Morgan Stanley’s equity strategists and economists are to be believed. In its report titled ‘Why This Is India’s Decade’, the global investment bank cites several factors like the rise in offshoring, investments in manufacturing, energy transition and the country’s digital infrastructure would make this a reality.
Morgan Stanley, has remained bullish on the India story for years now, unlike some other global banks that Modi-fied their view on India after the taper tantrum of 2013 and the subsequent meltdown in markets. Over the years, Morgan Stanley’s celebrated strategist Ridham Desai has steadfast in his analysis on the Next India. Many of his projections have played out like the one on retail investors leading the charge in Indian equities. After two years of the pandemic, during which foundations of the future have been laid, the theme has now shifted to New India.
The strategy report titled ‘Why This is India’s Decade’ by Morgan Stanley says: “Our Next India thematic looked at the trends and policies shaping the future of India's economy. As those trends have largely come to pass, with this report we shift from The Next India to The New India thematic to mark this transition. The four global trends of Demographics, Digitalization, Decarbonization and Deglobalization are favouring New India.”
The first factor that will continue to benefit India is offshoring. India has been the back office for the world for more than two decades. But the pandemic has only accelerated the pace of this trend, as more companies look at offshoring various functions to India. In a multi-polar world, now even manufacturing is slated to shift India. Morgan Stanley has spent considerable time in its report on why India would rise in the world economy.
Digitisation and the India stack is a story that is not very often seen in its entirety. The India Stack, digital payments using Unified Payments Interface that can handle large volumes at a small cost is unique to India. The digital revolution will transform how India lends, pays and insures itself. Says Morgan Stanley, “The digital revolution has already changed the way India handles documents, invests, and makes payments, and it is also set to alter the way India lends, spends and insures.”
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