India Set to Drive Half of Global Oil Demand Growth, Says Rosneft Chief

• India expected to account for nearly 50% of global oil demand growth over next decade.

• Consumption projected to reach 8 million barrels per day by 2035.

• Russian supplies delivered over $40 billion in economic benefits to India and China.

• Fertiliser prices up nearly 60% in early 2026.

• Supply disruptions could trigger global food risks.

India is poised to become the single largest driver of global oil demand growth over the coming decade, according to Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin. Speaking at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum, Sechin said India would account for nearly half of the increase in worldwide oil consumption during the next ten years.

Addressing delegates at the forum held from June 3 to June 6, Sechin described India as occupying a pivotal role in the international energy landscape. Russian state-run news agency TASS quoted him as saying that India’s rising consumption would significantly shape global energy trends.

India’s Expanding Energy Appetite

Citing projections from the International Energy Agency (IEA), Sechin noted that India’s oil demand is expected to approach eight million barrels per day by 2035. This would mark an increase of roughly 44% from current levels. By comparison, global oil demand overall is projected to expand by only about 5% over the same period.

These figures underline India’s growing economic momentum and its expanding energy requirements, driven by industrialisation, urbanisation and rising mobility.

Russian Supplies and Economic Gains

Sechin also highlighted the impact of Russian crude exports to India and China since April 2022. According to his remarks, the cumulative economic advantage derived from these supplies has exceeded $40 billion.

He argued that Russia’s partnerships with major Asian economies have contributed to stable energy flows, asserting that Russia remains an indispensable player in global supply chains.

Since Western sanctions reshaped trade patterns, India has emerged as a key buyer of discounted Russian oil. This shift has not only altered trade routes but also delivered cost savings to importing nations, particularly in Asia.

Concerns Over Supply Disruptions

Beyond oil demand forecasts, Sechin warned of potential risks tied to disruptions in critical maritime routes such as the Strait of Hormuz. Any interruption in shipments through this corridor, he suggested, could ripple through global markets.

One immediate consequence could be a spike in fertiliser prices. According to TASS, Sechin pointed out that fertiliser prices rose by nearly 60% during the first four months of the year. He cautioned that ongoing supply constraints and limited strategic reserves in some regions heighten the possibility of a broader food crisis.

Countries such as India, along with several nations in Africa and Southeast Asia, could be particularly vulnerable to such shocks. Higher fertiliser costs often translate into increased agricultural input expenses, which in turn push up food prices.

Political Undertones at the Forum

The energy-focused discussions at the St Petersburg forum also carried political undertones. Russian President Vladimir Putin, addressing delegates earlier in the event, remarked that any effort to undermine India’s sovereignty through sanctions or pressure would backfire under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership.

Putin’s comments were made on Friday in response to a question concerning his earlier interaction with leaders of major global news agencies.

India’s Central Role in the Energy Transition

Sechin’s remarks reinforce a broader narrative emerging in global energy circles: that India’s trajectory will be central to shaping future demand patterns. While many advanced economies are transitioning toward renewable energy and efficiency measures, India’s rapid economic growth continues to fuel rising oil consumption.

If the IEA projections hold true, India’s influence on global oil markets over the next decade will be unmatched. For energy producers and policymakers alike, the country’s evolving consumption patterns are likely to remain a defining factor in strategic planning and market stability.