India’s Rising Exports to China Offer Cushion Against Global Trade Headwinds

India’s exports to China rose 24.7% to $10.03 billion between April and October, driven by petroleum, telecom, and marine goods, even as overall exports stagnated. This growth helped offset the impact of US tariffs. Despite the momentum, India’s trade deficit with China hit $64 billion. Officials view the steady monthly gains as a positive trend for FY26.

India’s exports to China surged steadily through the first seven months of the current fiscal year, providing a timely boost as higher US tariffs weighed on the country’s overall outbound shipments. Monthly sales to China have increased without interruption since April, culminating in an exceptional 42% jump in October.

Between April and October, India exported goods worth $10.03 billion to China, a 24.7% rise from the same period last year. Strong demand for petroleum products, telecom equipment, and marine goods powered the growth, even as India’s total merchandise exports for the period expanded only marginally by 0.63%.

A government official described the trend as a rare bright spot in a challenging global environment, noting that several large economies are grappling with a downturn in their export sectors.

Despite the export momentum, China continued to dominate India’s import basket. Shipments from China reached $73.99 billion over the same period, leaving India with a trade deficit of $64 billion.

The monthly export gains to China began modestly in April with an 11% rise, before gathering speed through mid-year—up 28% in July and 33% in September. By April–October, China had become India’s fourth-largest export market.

October’s performance stood out sharply from India’s broader export trend. Overall outbound shipments for the month dropped 11.8% to $34.38 billion after the US imposed steep 50% tariffs in late August. The decline pushed India’s monthly trade deficit to a record $41.68 billion, driven partly by a spike in gold imports.

While detailed October data has yet to be released, earlier figures show a significant surge in petroleum exports to China. Shipments of refined products more than doubled to $1.48 billion between April and September, reflecting robust industrial energy demand in China. Telecom equipment also posted strong gains, with exports climbing over threefold to $778.23 million from last year’s $207.26 million.

Marine products added to the positive momentum as well, rising to $659.27 million from $548.36 million a year earlier.

India’s month-on-month export growth to China through the April–October period signals what officials describe as a strengthening trade trajectory. With industrial demand in China holding firm, the outlook for the remainder of FY26 appears optimistic.