India’s Fertility Rate Slips Below Replacement Level, Triggering Long-Term Demographic Questions

• India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has declined to 1.9, below the 2.1 replacement level.

• Education, urbanisation, lower infant mortality and rising aspirations are key drivers.

• Experts warn of gradual ageing and future labour shortages.

• Urban fertility has remained below replacement for decades.

• Policymakers may need to plan for an ageing population and a “silver dividend.”

India has reached a significant demographic milestone: for the first time, the country’s fertility rate has dropped below the level required to maintain population stability over the long term. The latest Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report, released by the Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner, shows that India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) now stands at 1.9 children per woman—below the 2.1 benchmark considered necessary for population replacement.

The TFR measures the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her lifetime. Two decades ago, in the early 2000s, India’s fertility rate hovered around 3.3 births per woman. Although fertility has been declining steadily for years, the rate had remained above replacement level—allowing the population to continue expanding. That cushion has now narrowed.

Why Is Fertility Falling?

Demographers and economists point to several overlapping factors. Expanded access to education—particularly for women—has played a pivotal role. As more women pursue higher education and employment, family planning decisions have shifted. Greater availability of contraceptives and increased autonomy in household decision-making have further accelerated this trend.

Economic pressures are also shaping reproductive choices. The cost of raising children has climbed sharply, especially in urban India. Housing, private schooling, extracurricular activities, healthcare and childcare expenses have all risen, making parenthood a more financially demanding commitment than it was for earlier generations.

Another critical factor is the steady decline in infant mortality. According to the latest SRS data, infant deaths have fallen from 30 per 1,000 live births in 2019 to 24 per 1,000 live births in 2024. As child survival rates improve, families often feel less compelled to have additional children.

Regional Contrasts

Fertility patterns vary widely across states. Bihar currently records the highest fertility rate at 2.9, followed by Uttar Pradesh at 2.6—both states with comparatively lower education levels and higher infant mortality rates.

In contrast, New Delhi reports one of the country’s lowest fertility rates at 1.2 births per woman. Southern states such as Tamil Nadu and Kerala, known for stronger healthcare systems and higher female literacy rates, have fertility rates around 1.3. Researchers have long observed that southern states advanced more rapidly in economic development and gender equity, factors closely linked to smaller family sizes.

Is India Facing a Crisis?

Despite the drop below replacement level, economists caution against alarmism. India’s population continues to grow and is projected to do so for some time due to demographic momentum. The country entered its “demographic dividend” phase in 2005—a period when the working-age population (15–64 years) outnumbers dependents. According to the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), this window is expected to last until 2055.

However, fertility transitions are gradual and difficult to reverse once entrenched. Economist Sanjeev Sanyal has noted that India’s peak number of live births occurred in 2001. Even if overall population growth persists for several decades due to longer life expectancy, the base of young people is already narrowing.

Other Asian economies offer cautionary examples. China’s fertility rate has fallen to about 1.0. Taiwan’s rate is around 0.86, while South Korea’s stands at approximately 0.75—the lowest in the world. These countries have struggled to raise fertility despite substantial financial incentives.

Changing Aspirations and Social Norms

Some experts argue that financial constraints alone do not explain the decline. Urban India’s fertility rate has remained below replacement for roughly 25 years. In many households, the desired family size itself is shrinking. Younger couples increasingly prefer having one child—or none at all—reflecting evolving social norms, career priorities and lifestyle preferences.

Affordability matters, but it may not be decisive. Wealthy nations such as Japan and South Korea, despite high incomes and strong welfare systems, continue to experience extremely low fertility. This suggests deeper cultural shifts are at play.

The Road Ahead: Ageing Before Affluence?

The long-term implications are significant. Analysts estimate that by 2050, about 20% of India’s population could be over the age of 60—approximately 300 million people. Such a shift would alter the country’s dependency ratio, placing greater pressure on a relatively smaller workforce.

This raises the possibility that India could “age before it becomes rich,” a scenario economists have warned about. Yet some see opportunity in what is termed the “silver dividend”—the productive engagement of older citizens through reskilling, flexible work arrangements and technology adoption.

For now, India’s fertility decline marks a turning point rather than a crisis. The demographic transition unfolding today will shape the country’s economic and social trajectory for decades to come. Policymakers face a delicate balancing act: sustaining growth while preparing for an ageing society that may look very different from the India of the past.