India and China’s Diverging Demographic Futures: What Their Labor Forces Signal for the Global Economy

India’s workforce is set to expand by 144 million by 2050, while China’s will shrink by 239 million due to aging and low fertility. This widening demographic gap will reshape global labor dynamics, influencing supply chains, investment, and economic strategy. As China contracts, India’s growing labor pool positions it as an increasingly attractive hub for industry and global growth.

India and China—long regarded as the twin giants of global labor—are headed down sharply different demographic paths. Fresh projections show a widening gap between the two countries’ working‑age populations, with India continuing to grow its labor pool while China braces for a steep contraction. The implications extend far beyond national borders, influencing manufacturing trends, investment strategies, and the evolving landscape of global power.

India’s Expanding Workforce

According to UN data compiled in OPEC’s World Oil Outlook 2025, India’s working‑age population (15–64) is projected to rise from roughly 990 million in 2024 to about 1.13 billion by 2050. That represents an increase of 144 million people—a number larger than the current combined working‑age populations of Japan and Germany.This expansion is rooted in India’s comparatively youthful population and higher fertility levels, which together continue to replenish its labor supply.

China’s Rapidly Shrinking Labor Pool

China faces a dramatically different trajectory. Its working‑age population is expected to fall from about 984 million in 2024 to around 745 million by 2050, a staggering decline of 239 million people.The drop reflects years of ultra-low birth rates and a rapidly aging society. As the workforce shrinks, China is likely to see higher labor costs, increased strain on social programs, and a potential slowdown in long-term economic growth.

A New Center of Gravity for Global Labor

While the global working-age population is projected to grow by just over 15% through 2050, India will account for a significant portion of that increase. China’s steep decline, meanwhile, pulls the global total in the opposite direction.

This demographic divergence could reshape how companies choose where to build factories, establish service centers, and deploy capital. With a growing labor pool and competitive wage structure, India is poised to attract greater interest from industries seeking scalable workforces—including manufacturing, technology, and business services.

As China enters an extended period of demographic contraction and India gains momentum, the balance of global labor is shifting. These trends may influence everything from supply-chain redesigns to geopolitical alliances. For businesses and policymakers alike, understanding this demographic divide will be crucial to navigating the economic landscape of the coming decades.