China’s Electric Freight Revolution Is Quietly Reshaping Global Energy Demand

China is rapidly electrifying its heavy‑truck fleet, driving a major drop in diesel demand and reshaping global energy forecasts. Electric truck sales have surged, supported by subsidies, falling battery costs, fast‑charging and swap networks. As adoption accelerates and exports grow, China’s freight transition is cutting emissions, displacing significant oil use, and influencing global transport and energy trends.

As global climate negotiations struggle to keep pace with rising emissions, a quieter but more consequential shift is unfolding on China’s highways. Electric heavy trucks—once a niche experiment—are now racing through the country’s freight system in numbers large enough to shake forecasts for global diesel demand and redirect future energy trends.

Industry data points to a rapid transformation. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that global sales of medium- and heavy-duty electric trucks more than doubled between 2023 and 2024, surpassing 90,000 units. China alone accounted for over 80 percent of those purchases, cementing its dominant role in the sector.

A Market That Changed Almost Overnight

As recently as 2020, virtually every new Chinese truck ran on diesel. By mid‑2025, battery-powered models captured 22 percent of new heavy‑truck sales—more than double their share a year earlier, according to Commercial Vehicle World. Domestic analysis by Sublime China Information estimates that new‑energy truck sales soared 175 percent year‑on‑year in the first half of 2025, reaching more than 76,000 units.

International observers expect this surge to continue. British research firm BMI projects that electric trucks could represent 46 percent of China’s new truck sales in 2025 and 60 percent by 2026.

A Heavyweight Sector Begins to Decarbonise

Freight transport is a backbone of economic activity—and a major source of emissions. In 2024, road freight alone produced about a third of transportation-related carbon output globally. The challenge has been technological: electric trucks historically carried bulky batteries that limited cargo capacity, making diesel the default choice. LNG briefly appeared to fill the gap, but 2025 sales trends show electric trucks overtaking LNG models in China for several months straight.

By early 2025, “new energy” trucks—those powered by electricity, batteries, or hybrid systems—made up about one‑quarter of new registrations, a dramatic leap from the low-single-digit shares seen just a few years ago.

Diesel Demand Starts to Slide

The ripple effects are already visible in global fuel markets. China, the world’s second‑largest diesel consumer, saw diesel use fall to 3.9 million barrels per day in June 2024—an 11 percent drop from the previous year. The U.S. Energy Information Administration attributes part of this decline to the rapid adoption of electric and LNG trucks.

Rhodium Group estimates that China’s electric trucking fleet is now displacing more than one million barrels of oil demand each day. Looking ahead, Rystad Energy forecasts that China’s transport sector could reduce its diesel consumption by 40 percent by 2030, cutting nationwide diesel use by roughly one‑quarter compared with 2024. SCI expects diesel demand to fall by another 11.3 million tons this year—mirroring last year’s decline.

Why the Shift Is Happening So Quickly

A blend of policy support, cost competitiveness, and infrastructure development has turbocharged China’s transition.

• Strong incentives: A 2024 subsidy scheme offered truck owners up to $19,000 to replace older diesel models with electric alternatives.

• Infrastructure buildout: Key logistics regions such as the Yangtze River Delta now feature dedicated charging stations along major freight corridors. Beijing and Shanghai have installed heavy-duty chargers capable of powering up trucks within minutes.

• Battery-swapping networks: CATL launched a battery-swap system for heavy trucks in May 2025, with plans to cover 150,000 km of expressways.

• Lower battery costs: With China’s robust battery ecosystem, falling prices have helped close the cost gap between diesel and electric trucks, especially for fleets that operate on predictable, high‑utilisation routes.

• Operational advantages: For port shuttles, regional distribution, and urban freight, electric trucks already offer efficiency gains through depot charging and battery‑swap options.

China’s Global Ambitions

As domestic adoption accelerates, Chinese manufacturers are expanding abroad. According to McKinsey, exports of Chinese heavy-duty trucks—including electric models—to the Middle East and North Africa grew 73 percent annually between 2021 and 2023, with significant gains in Latin America as well.

Companies such as Sany Heavy Industry are preparing to enter Europe by 2026 and have already shipped electric trucks to markets including the United States, India, Thailand, and the United Arab Emirates. BYD recently began building a factory in Hungary to produce electric trucks and buses, aligning with Europe’s goal to cut emissions from new heavy trucks by 90 percent by 2040.

A Shift With Global Consequences

China’s rapid electrification of heavy-duty trucking is beginning to reshape not only its own energy landscape but also global expectations for oil demand and emissions reductions. While international climate diplomacy continues to search for consensus, China’s freight transition offers an example of how practical, large-scale technological adoption can drive meaningful change—and do so at remarkable speed.