In exactly a week’s time we will know who the victors and losers are in the UK general election. An election called by Prime Minister Boris Johnson in the hope of bringing finality and clarity to the tumultuous saga of Brexit. A saga described today by Johnson’s predecessor, John Major, as “the worst foreign policy decision of my lifetime.”
If the polls are to be trusted, then the Conservatives have had a commanding leading of 10 points or more throughout the campaign, which on a straight mathematical calculation would give Johnson the parliamentary majority he seeks to ‘get the deal done’ and take Britain out the European Union on 31 January 2020.
However, pollsters have been notoriously wrong across the globe, especially in recent years. Whether it was predicting a Clinton victory over Trump, Indian Prime Minister Modi failing to win a majority, or in predicting that the UK would vote to remain in the EU. At the end of the day, polls are expressions of voter intentions, and until the ballot is cast, it’s a bit like the age-old adage of counting chickens before they hatch. Herein lies the problem.