
Despite the fact that India's aviation infrastructure blueprint places a heavy emphasis on building new airports in smaller cities to provide last-mile connectivity through its Ude Desh Ka Aam Nagrik (UDAN) programme, it is essential to prioritise rapid expansion of existing facilities in metro airports that attract the most traffic. According to the plan, Jewar's handling capacity will begin at 12 MPPA (million passengers per year) and increase to 70 MPPA (million passengers per year) by FY2039.
The government's estimation may be accurate given that the delivery of the new aircraft will be gradual and staggered, and that some of them will replace ageing fighters.
Indian airlines are aiming for the heavens. They are preparing for the long haul after being grounded by the Covid-19 pandemic.
Recent figures illustrate the ambition of the airline. Air India, which is owned by the Tata Group, inked an agreement last month to acquire 470 aircraft in what could be a $70 billion (list prices) transaction. IndiGo subsequently placed an order for 500 aircraft, bringing the total to 970.
IndiGo had previously ordered 480 aircraft expected to arrive between now and 2030. Akasa Air, a new entrant into the Indian aviation market, announced at the Paris Air Show in May that it would add four Boeing jets to the 72 aircraft it had already ordered. The number of aircraft acquisition orders is increasing.
Can India's aviation infrastructure support these airlines' ambitions? When India has only 700 aircraft, Mumbai's air congestion is becoming severe and the issue is acquiring traction.

Civil Aviation Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia tells ET that India will have sufficient infrastructure — 230 airports by 2030, up from the current 148, an expansion of the passenger-handling capacity of six metro cities from the current 221 million passengers per year to 410-430 million in the next four-five years, and immediate relief with the operationalization of two new greenfield airports by next year.
"By 2030, India will have a fleet of 1,200-1,400 aircraft, up from the existing number of 700. We will have sufficient airport capacity, according to Scindia. "I also anticipate an increase in passenger traffic from the current 14.5 crore (145 million) per year to nearly 42 crore by 2030."
The government's estimation may be accurate given that the delivery of the new aircraft will be gradual and staggered, and that some of them will replace ageing fighters.
For example, IndiGo's new order will not appear until between 2030 and 2035. CS Subbiah, former chairman and managing director of Alliance Air, states, "Air India needs to replace approximately 16 ageing aircraft. IndiGo will also need to replace ageing aircraft. I estimate that 25% of the new aircraft will be replacements." He adds that Air India may receive some new Boeing 737 aircraft within the next 18 months, as a previously placed order by Russia may be redirected to India.
Jitendra Bhargava, former executive director of Air India, asserts that private airlines would have considered the potential rate of infrastructural development prior to placing large orders for new aircraft.
He questions, "Why would private airlines place such large orders if they are uncertain about the government's expansion plan?" "There was a time when it took decades to implement newly announced initiatives. Things are evolving rapidly. Additionally, aviation is no longer regarded as elitist," he continues.
Despite the fact that India's aviation infrastructure blueprint places a heavy emphasis on building new airports in smaller cities to provide last-mile connectivity through its Ude Desh Ka Aam Nagrik (UDAN) programme, it is essential to prioritise rapid expansion of existing facilities in metro airports that attract the most traffic. According to the plan, Jewar's handling capacity will begin at 12 MPPA (million passengers per year) and increase to 70 MPPA (million passengers per year) by FY2039.
This will exceed the current capacity of the airport in Mumbai. The civil aviation ministry projects that the capacity of the Navi Mumbai airport will increase to 60 MPPA by FY32. According to Subbiah, these satellite airports will presumably serve all airlines, not just low-cost ones.
TWO BIG
Another concern raised by Subbiah is the dominance of a few airlines, which may result in a significant increase in airfare. "Duopoly is equivalent to monopoly. There is little the government can do in this regard. New airlines must enhance their management abilities. If infrastructure is expanded as intended, there is room for four major airlines in India," he says, referring to the increasing market share of two large entities — InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo) and Tata group airlines (which owns Air India and Air Asia and holds a 51 percent stake in Vistara).
According to data published by the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) for the month of May, the airlines of these two companies captured 87.7% of the market, with IndiGo leading with 61.4%, followed by Air India (9.4%), Vistara (9%) and Air Asia (7.7%). SpiceJet obtained only 5.4% market share, marginally higher than Aksa Air's 4.8% share.
"In a competitive market where multiple private carriers are active, monopolies would be difficult due to market dynamics," says Ficci secretary-general Shailesh Pathak. The government is establishing a favourable regulatory environment and supporting airlines. He adds that comparable competition and regulatory supervision are required in the airport industry as well.
Scindia acknowledges that passengers in certain sectors were compelled to purchase tickets at a premium price when airfares skyrocketed in April, May, and a portion of June, but he refutes the contention that this is due to the monopolistic nature of airlines. "High airfares were not planned. It was due to two factors: an unprecedented demand during the peak summer season and the suspension of 54 aircraft flown by GoAir, he explains, adding that airfares have decreased since his ministry's intervention.
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