New Delhi: With rising demand, moderate inflation, a stable interest rate environment, and strong foreign exchange reserves, India's economy was able to withstand global challenges in 2023 and is expected to continue being the fastest-growing major economy in the world. Indian GDP grew 6.1% in the March quarter, despite widespread gloom among industrialized nations and a deteriorating geopolitical situation. After leveling out at 7.6% in the previous quarter, growth accelerated to 7.8% in the June quarter.
The growth rate for the first half of current fiscal year was 7.7 percent.
If current trends continue into the December quarter, India's economy will surpass China's in terms of growth rate, making it the world's fastest-growing major economy.
In 2023, India will have a growth rate of 6.3%, surpassing both China and Brazil, whose growth rates are slated at 5.2% and 3.2%, respectively, based on the most recent and rather conservative growth predictions of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
The OECD projects 6.1% growth for India and 4.7% growth for China in 2024.
However, in the next year, major economies including the US, UK, and Japan are expected to see either a slowdown or a very slight uptick in economic growth rates.
When seen from a global vantage point, India's economic performance in 2023 looks even more impressive.
Global growth is predicted to slow from 3.5% in 2022 to 3% in 2023 and even further to 2.9% in 2024, according to the World Economic Outlook report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Ashima Goyal, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India, stated that India's growth has demonstrated remarkable resilience in the face of numerous external shocks. The importance of policy in mitigating shocks and the diversification of the economy are to blame for this.
"Will add up to give India good growth in 2024 and beyond"—her words—if we empower individuals with greater skills and capital.
According to Dharmakirti Joshi, Chief Economist at Crisil, geopolitical events would once again put India's domestic demand resilience to the test in the next year.
We anticipate a somewhat slower rate of GDP growth in the next fiscal year, at 6.4%, compared to the current one. The biggest drags, he said, will be the delayed effects of interest rate hikes and the worldwide slowdown.
"Despite substantial global headwinds, the Indian economy remained the fastest growing major economy in 2023," stated a recent article on the status of the economy by the RBI. In light of the fact that the RBI's most recent poll of households in November 2023 found that both consumer confidence and opinions about current income remained favorable, the outlook might be described as cautiously optimistic.
In the fiscal year 2024–25, the Reserve Bank of India's dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model predicts a growth rate of 6%. The model is rooted in microeconomic principles and rational expectations that define the actions of agents like the representative consumer, producer, and the central bank.
With inflation on the decline and growth holding strong, the economic climate is becoming more benign after a couple of rough years. In 2024–25, most predictions indicate growth that is comparable to, if not somewhat lower than, that of 2023–24. "The biggest risks to growth," stated MPC Member Jayanth R Varma, referring to the global downturn and geopolitical uncertainties.
After reaching a high of 7.44% in July, retail inflation has been trending downward. Starting the year off with 6.52 percent retail inflation, the rate dipped to 4.31% in May and then climbed to 7.44% in July.
While 5.55 percent retail inflation in November was well within RBI's target range, it was nevertheless well over the 4-percent average.
Although a well-distributed rainfall is essential for reducing food prices, Chief Economist Aditi Nayar of rating agency Icra predicted that inflation will moderate.
It would appear like India's macros are doing well as we approach 2024. According to her, the growth is projected to be 6.5% in FY2024 and 6.2% in FY2025.
The DSGE model, used by the central bank, predicts that retail inflation will fall from 4.9% in the current fiscal year to 4.8% in the next fiscal year 2024–25.
With the goal of maintaining a "actively disinflationary" stance, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has maintained the repo rate, a short-term interest rate, at 6.5% since February.
In April 2023, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das decided to keep the policy rate unchanged, ending the rate hike cycle that started in May 2022. Profits have flowed in and bank and business balance sheets have been fortified thanks to the interest rate regime's stability.
Assuming retail inflation stays within the target range of 2 to 6 percent and there is no sudden increase in the price of crude oil due to geopolitical factors like the war between Russia and Ukraine, the conflict between Israel and Gaza, or the blockade of the Red Sea route, the Reserve Bank may opt to lower interest rates in 2024.
In 2024, when all the forces are expected to be balanced, we should see a respectable growth rate of 6.3% to 6.6%. Geopolitics and conflict hotspots are a wild card; according to Ranen Banerjee, Partner, Economic Advisory Services, PwC India, "the landing bias of the growth rate to the lower or higher end, respectively," depending on whether the present conflicts are escalating or not.
In December, after a four-month hiatus, India's foreign exchange reserves surpassed USD 600 billion, providing some solace amidst a deteriorating geopolitical situation and a worldwide economic slump.
In other news from the outside world, the current account deficit shrank dramatically from 3.8% of GDP in the same period last year to 1% in the third quarter of 2023.
留言