India Poised to Dominate Global Rice Market with Record Exports in 2025-26

India is set to dominate the global rice market in 2025-26, exporting 24 million tonnes and capturing 40% of the market. Favorable monsoon forecasts and record-high production of 121 million tonnes for 2024-25 support this outlook. Eased export curbs, introduced earlier to stabilize domestic prices, have boosted India's competitiveness. With abundant reserves and cost-effective pricing, India is poised to outpace Asian competitors, reshaping global rice trade and reinforcing its role as a key player in global food security.

India is expected to solidify its position as the world’s leading rice exporter by shipping an estimated 24 million tonnes of rice during the 2025-26 marketing year, capturing approximately 40% of the global market share. This projection, shared by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), underscores the nation’s dominance in the global rice trade.

The USDA’s marketing year runs from October to September, differing from India’s financial year, which spans April to March. While the USDA did not provide explicit reasons for its optimistic forecast, the prediction aligns with India’s robust foodgrain reserves and favorable agricultural outlook. As of April 27, India’s combined wheat and rice stocks were reported at a hefty 66.16 million tonnes—well above the annual public distribution system (PDS) requirement of 60 million tonnes.

Favorable Conditions to Boost Rice Production

India’s rice production prospects are further buoyed by a positive weather forecast. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted a strong monsoon season for 2025, which is expected to enhance paddy cultivation. The 2024-25 Kharif season already demonstrated strong momentum, with rice production estimated at 121 million tonnes, marking a nearly 7% increase compared to the previous year.

This surge in production would represent a record ten consecutive years of growth in rice output, although the report notes that the expansion has been tempered by a slight reduction in harvested acreage. Despite this, India’s competitive pricing and abundant supplies are likely to bolster its position as a global rice export leader.

Competitive Edge and Market Impact

India’s aggressive export strategy and affordability are set to not only strengthen its dominance but also suppress competition from other major Asian rice-exporting nations. Historically, India has maintained its edge in global rice markets due to its ample domestic supply and cost-effective pricing. However, this dominance faced setbacks when the government imposed export restrictions in 2022 to stabilize domestic prices amidst soaring global rates.

These measures included banning the export of non-basmati white rice, imposing a 20% duty on parboiled rice, setting a minimum export price for basmati rice, and halting exports of broken rice altogether. These curbs were particularly stringent in the lead-up to the 2024 general elections, as the government sought to manage inflation and ensure food security.

Easing Export Restrictions and Market Recovery

With rice production rebounding due to favorable monsoon rains and global markets stabilizing, the Indian government has gradually relaxed these restrictions since September 2024. The final remaining ban—on the export of 100% broken rice—was lifted in March 2025.

Broken rice, a by-product of the milling process, has a niche market, particularly in China and several African nations. In 2022, India exported 3.9 million metric tonnes of broken rice, primarily to China for animal feed and to countries like Senegal and Djibouti for human consumption, as it is a more affordable alternative to higher-grade rice.

Outlook for 2025-26

As India steps into the 2025-26 marketing year, the combination of record production, lifted export curbs, and competitive pricing positions the country to not only reclaim but expand its leadership in the global rice trade. This resurgence is expected to reshape the global rice market, limiting opportunities for competing exporters and reinforcing India’s pivotal role in ensuring global food security.

With favorable conditions aligning, India’s rice export story for 2025-26 is poised to be a landmark chapter in the nation’s agricultural and economic narrative.