India, China and Brazil Steps into Climate Leadership as the West Retreats

As Western nations retreat from climate leadership, emerging economies like China, India, and Brazil are set to take charge at Cop30 in Belem, Brazil, from November 10–21. With the U.S. disengaged and Europe focused on resource security, these nations aim to integrate development with decarbonization. Their recent achievements in renewable energy and biofuels position them to redefine global climate policy, aligning economic growth with sustainability and fostering international cooperation.

As the commitment of Western nations to fight climate change wanes, emerging economies like China, India, and Brazil are poised to take center stage at the upcoming UN climate summit. The Cop30 conference, scheduled to take place from November 10 to 21 in Belem, Brazil, presents a pivotal opportunity for these nations to redefine the global climate agenda amidst a leadership vacuum left by traditional powers.

The United States, under Donald Trump, has largely withdrawn from the global climate dialogue, having exited the 2015 Paris Agreement. Meanwhile, Europe’s focus has shifted toward resource security due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. Analysts believe this situation opens the door for countries from the Global South to steer international climate discussions with a fresh perspective.

“With the U.S. stepping back and Europe preoccupied with its domestic challenges, emerging economies like Brazil, India, and China now have the chance to shape the discourse on climate action,” said Li Shuo, director of the Asia Society Policy Institute’s China Climate Hub. “Their approach is likely to emphasize the integration of development goals with decarbonization strategies.”

A Critical Juncture for Climate Action

The Cop30 summit comes at a decisive moment, as the world struggles to meet the Paris Agreement’s ambitious goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of this century. A UN report from last year warned that global temperatures could rise by 2.6 to 2.8 degrees Celsius by 2100 even if current climate commitments are fully implemented.

Since 2015, a 0.3-degree temperature increase has led to 11 more annual hot days globally, exacerbating the intensity of heatwaves. Vulnerable regions such as the Amazon, South Asia, and West Africa have faced the brunt of these changes, according to a recent report by World Weather Attribution and Climate Central.

Past climate summits have often fallen short of achieving tangible progress due to inadequate funding and the lack of binding commitments to phase out fossil fuels. This time, experts argue, nations must unequivocally commit to clean energy transitions, which are not just critical for the environment but also for long-term global economic growth.

“Clean energy development is essential for the next wave of market growth,” said Sunwoo Lee, CEO of JADE Dialogues, an Asia-Pacific platform for energy transition discussions. “Nations that leverage technology, finance, and diplomacy in this sphere will gain a strategic edge in shaping the global order.”

Emerging Economies Take the Lead

Expectations are high for China, India, and Brazil to unveil significant climate initiatives at Cop30. These nations are also working to strengthen trade ties and multilateral frameworks, even as they navigate challenges such as U.S. tariffs.

India and Brazil have recently agreed to expand a preferential trade agreement, aiming to boost bilateral trade from $12 billion in 2022 to $20 billion by 2030. Meanwhile, India and China are resuming direct passenger flights after a five-year suspension, signaling improved economic and transport links. These developments align with the goals of cooperation frameworks like BRICS, which emphasize economic integration among emerging economies.

Ajay Mathur, a former director general of the International Solar Alliance, highlighted that the stakes are particularly high for the Cop30 negotiations. Agreements made during the summit, particularly on financing and solar energy adoption, could significantly influence global climate outcomes, he noted.

A Track Record of Climate Achievements

China, India, and Brazil have already made notable strides in combating climate change in recent years. China invested $625 billion in clean energy and achieved its wind and solar capacity targets six years ahead of schedule. Similarly, India met its goal of sourcing 50% of its electricity capacity from non-fossil fuel sources five years ahead of its 2030 deadline. Brazil has launched a major initiative to expand biofuel use and pledged $1 billion to a global forest conservation fund.

“These efforts position China, India, and Brazil to lead not only in renewable energy but also in broader strategic areas such as trade, technology, and South-South cooperation,” said Aarti Khosla, director of Climate Trends.

The Cop30 summit offers these emerging economies a unique platform to align their domestic priorities with global climate goals. By doing so, they have the potential to reset the trajectory of international climate politics and foster a sustainable future for the planet.