India a 'green shoot' for the world, any mandate other than Modi will lead to 'surprise and bewilderment': Ian Bremmer

 Bremmer added that India is advancing towards becoming the fourth largest economy globally, striving to maintain positive relations with all countries, a development that is welcomed by the G7 nations.

Ian Bremmer, an American political scientist and author, regards India's ascent as one of the world's promising developments. He predicts widespread surprise and confusion if Prime Minister Narendra Modi is not re-elected on June 4, the counting day.

Mandate for Modi?

According to predictions by Ian Bremmer's Eurasia Group, the BJP is expected to secure around 305 seats in the 2024 assembly elections, a number similar to the 2019 results, with a margin of ±10 seats. Bremmer noted that while India's economy has long underperformed, it is currently showing significant improvement. "This is a country that has been introspective for many years but is now emerging as a more significant global player," he explained.

When questioned about the potential for a different outcome on counting day, Bremmer expressed that there would be global surprise and confusion if the results deviate from a third term for PM Modi. He anticipates that people would rush to Google to learn about the potential new leader, as "no one has been paying any attention to anyone except Modi on the international stage." However, he described this scenario as 'unexpected,' mentioning that his firm, Eurasia Group, is not focusing on this possibility.

India - The Green Shoot

In an exclusive interview with CNBC-TV18's Shereen Bhan, Bremmer highlighted this period as one of stability and growth for India. He mentioned that India has been working to build bridges with advanced democracies and is recognized as an economic representative of the private sector and a democracy, despite global disagreements over its governance. Bremmer pointed out that India is on its way to becoming the fourth largest economy and is actively seeking favorable relations globally, with G7 nations supporting India's rise.

Global Outlook

Earlier in January, Bremmer had labeled 2024 as the 'Voldemort of the years'—a year so daunting that no one wanted to discuss it. He outlined several geopolitical challenges for the year, including the upcoming US elections, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Middle East unrest, and tense US-China relations, all of which, he noted, are currently being managed, albeit with some difficulties.