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China to Be Top World Growth Source in Next Five Years, IMF Says

China will be the top contributor to global growth over the next five years, with its share set to be double that of the US, according to the International Monetary Fund.

The nation’s slice of global gross domestic product expansion is expected to represent 22.6% of total world growth through 2028, according to Bloomberg calculations using data the fund released in its World Economic Outlook released last week. India follows at 12.9%, while the US will contribute 11.3%.

The emergency lender sees the world economy expanding about 3% over the next half decade as higher interest rates bite. The outlook over the next five years is the weakest in more than three decades, with the fund urging nations to avoid economic fragmentation caused by geopolitical tension and take steps to bolster productivity.

In total, 75% of global growth is expected to be concentrated in 20 countries and over half in the top four: China, India, the US and Indonesia. While Group of Seven countries will comprise a smaller share, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom and France are seen among the top 10 contributors.

Brazil, Russia, India and China — known by the acronym BRIC coined by Jim O’Neill, a former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. chief economist — are expected to add almost 40% of the world’s growth through 2028.

The four nations established the BRIC forum in 2009 and the bloc became Brics a year later when South Africa — by far the smallest economy in the grouping — was admitted, a move O’Neill disagreed with.

South African expansion is set to be anemic in the next five years, adding roughly half a percentage point to the world total.


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