China's Kindergartens Adapt to Survive Amid Declining Birth Rates

China’s kindergartens face a crisis due to declining birth rates, with enrollment dropping over 25% since 2020. Institutions are adapting by expanding their student base, adjusting age restrictions, and offering new services like childcare for younger children. Some are transforming into care centers or diversifying into other industries. The government is addressing the issue with policies to increase affordable childcare slots. Despite these efforts, the sector’s survival hinges on innovation and flexibility amid ongoing demographic challenges.

China's kindergartens are facing an unprecedented crisis as the nation grapples with its lowest birth rates in decades. Institutions that once thrived on stable enrollment numbers are now being forced to adapt in innovative ways to survive. From expanding student demographics to transforming operations entirely, kindergartens are reinventing themselves to cope with the demographic challenges.

A Shift in Enrolment Policies

In Harbin, the provincial capital of northeastern Heilongjiang, a government-affiliated kindergarten has begun recruiting from the general population. Historically reserved for the children of officials, the kindergarten now prioritizes outreach to a broader audience. Lily Wang, a senior teacher at the facility, noted this shift began last autumn. Although children of officials still receive priority, a noticeable increase in pupils from other backgrounds has occurred.

Wang explained that the administration is adopting strategies from southern regions, such as group-based management, in an effort to stabilize enrollment. "The leadership has widened the enrolment base," she said, reflecting the increasing pressure on kindergartens nationwide to adapt.

A Nationwide Demographic Challenge

China recorded a population decline for the first time in 60 years in 2022, with only 9.56 million births. Although 2024 saw a modest rebound—thanks partly to the auspicious Year of the Dragon—the overall trend remains bleak. The number of kindergartens has fallen significantly, from 291,700 in 2020 to 253,300 in 2024, a loss of over 13%. Enrollments have plummeted by 25.5% during that period, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

A report by Sunglory Education predicts even grimmer prospects. By 2030, kindergarten enrollment could be halved compared to 2020, and the number of operating kindergartens might shrink by 44% relative to their 2021 peak.

Desperate Measures Amid Declining Enrollments

Kindergarten operators across China are taking drastic steps to stay afloat. In Guiyang, the capital of southwestern Guizhou province, Jing Yazhen, founder of Zhengyuanjunxing Education, has closed eight of her 12 kindergartens this year. Saddled with 21 million yuan (US$2.93 million) in debt, she has pivoted to selling liquor online to make ends meet.

“Twelve kindergartens, 20 years of dedication to education, three years of pandemic—everything reset to zero,” Jing shared on her social media account, highlighting the emotional and financial toll.

In Guangxi, a kindergarten teacher described a dire situation where her institution had hoped to enroll 150 pupils but managed to attract just over 20. The enrollment crisis, she said, has left public kindergartens struggling to maintain operations. Some are reducing staff numbers, while others are reassigning tenured teachers to new roles.

Innovative Solutions to Stay Afloat

To address the plummeting enrollment rates, kindergartens are exploring creative solutions. Some have begun offering flexible teaching arrangements or higher-quality services to attract more students. Others are transforming into intergenerational care homes or parent-child activity centers, leveraging the unique skill sets of their staff.

Adjusting age restrictions is another strategy. Lily Wang’s kindergarten, for example, is applying for certification to provide childcare services for younger children. This move aligns with government policies aimed at easing the burden on working parents.

Government Actions to Encourage Births

In response to the country’s low fertility rate, Chinese authorities are implementing measures to make childcare more accessible and affordable. The government plans to add 660,000 affordable childcare slots by the end of the year, aiming for 4.5 slots per 1,000 people for children under the age of three.

As these policies roll out, kindergartens across the nation are reimagining their roles in local communities. By catering to younger age groups and offering diverse services, they hope to weather the storm of demographic decline.

The Road Ahead

China’s kindergartens are at a crossroads, with survival depending on adaptability and innovation. Whether through policy changes, operational overhauls, or community engagement, these institutions are striving to remain relevant in an era of shrinking class sizes.

This blog post is based on insights from an article originally published by the South China Morning Post.